15 mins: Discuss OLI page 14. Why do people make bad scenarios?

1 hour: In class activity:

Let’s discuss Peter Schwartz’s ideas with the following assignment.

Peter Schwartz critique of Masdar part 1

What assumptions are being made about the world and Masdar?

• What “maps” do you think guided Masdar?
• What assumptions might be in play by Masdar’s designers?
• What are examples of STEEP forces shifting the trajectory for Masdar from 2006 to 2017 (e.g., metaphorically the tides, wind, currents that Peter Schwartz discusses)?
• What might be alternative models for Masdar?

Homework: Do OLI page 15 “Futures are here”.

Recap Today we discussed why people are constantly surprised by the future and what you can do to anticipate some inevitable surprises. Peter Schwartz suggests that to acknowledge that things might be different than how you expect them to be means that you need to do the hard work of thinking through how you might respond to things if they go in a way different than planned.

We did an in-class activity, to practice trying to understand what maps guide your ideas about the future. You perhaps experienced how hard it is to articulate what your assumptions are. Hopefully you learned that reflecting and trying to ask yourself what your assumptions are can help to see your own biases and preferences.

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